This article originally provided by
The Sunday Gazette-Mail
November 5, 2006
Blankenship money shakes up sleepy races
Turnout could determine control of Legislature
By Scott Finn
Staff writer
In West Virginia, races for the House of Delegates are usually sleepy
affairs, where name recognition and personal connections decide who wins.
But this year is different.
Massey Energy chief executive Don Blankenship has poured about $2 million
into the mix, the equivalent of $50,000 for each of the 41 Republicans supported
by his independent campaign. His fliers, television and radio ads are
everywhere, and his get-out-the-vote effort is promising to bring
Republican-friendly voters to the polls.
Including Blankenship’s spending, some Democrats in the House of Delegates
are being outspent more than two to one.
But a Republican takeover of the House of Delegates is still a tall order.
Right now, the GOP holds only 32 of 100 House of Delegates seats.
Not surprisingly, Democrats and Republicans are predicting completely
different results in Tuesday’s elections.
Republicans say the Blankenship campaign will turn out their voters in
unprecedented numbers on Tuesday, surprising incumbents and pundits alike. Some
think they can actually win the House, while others think they can turn 15 seats
and come within a hair’s breadth of control.
Democrats say that Blankenship’s campaign has left voters cold. On the
national level, this is a Democratic year, they say, and that feeling will help
all Democrats on the ticket. Most Democrats will concede in private that they
will lose House seats, but maybe only as few as three to five.
Even if they don’t win the House of Delegates, Republicans could tip the
balance of power in the race for House speaker. House Majority Whip Scott
Varner, D-Marshall, is squaring off against Delegate Rick Thompson, D-Wayne, to
replace retiring Speaker Bob Kiss, D-Raleigh. Their supporters are evenly
divided now, but no one knows how that will look if several Democrats are
knocked off by Republican challengers.
Meanwhile, Democrats have high hopes for gaining between two and five seats
in the 34-member state Senate and increasing their 21-13 majority. Blankenship
hasn’t invested heavily in Senate races, making Republicans less optimistic
about gains.
Last week, Gov. Joe Manchin threw an October surprise into the election by
announcing a series of proposed tax cuts, including a reduction of the food tax
from 5 cents to 3 cents, a doubling of a tax credit for seniors who own their
own homes and cuts in two business taxes.
Republicans criticized the timing of that announcement, as well as the
release of a report Thursday into two deaths at a Massey-owned mine.
Control of the Legislature will be decided in several key areas of the state
where the battle has raged fiercely for months — places like Raleigh County, the
Eastern Panhandle, Cabell and Wayne counties, and the Kanawha Valley — according
to political consultants for both parties.
Raleigh County
Raleigh County may be the home of Sen. Robert Byrd, but it has turned
increasingly Republican in recent elections.
In 2002, residents elected Republican Sen. Russ Weeks, who ran as a social
conservative. He was heavily outspent, but his grass-roots campaign overthrew
Senate Judiciary Chairman Bill Wooten.
In 2004, Raleigh County voted overwhelmingly for President Bush and preferred
a local Republican over native son and longtime Democratic Congressman Nick
Rahall.
This year, two of the county’s three Democratic delegates are resigning: Kiss
and Sally Susman, who mounted an unsuccessful primary bid for state Senate.
Republicans think they can fill both those seats with their candidates, said
Joe Long, Raleigh County Republican chairman. One GOP candidate, Chuck
Carpenter, came close in previous elections and is mounting a particularly
vigorous campaign, Long said.
“We think in Raleigh County, Republicans might have a majority of candidates
going to the Legislature,” Long said.
Not so fast, says Jack Roop, a former Democratic member of the House of
Delegates from Raleigh County.
Roop admits that Republicans are energized in Raleigh County. But he thinks
county Democrats will turn out to support Byrd.
“They want to show that they’re supporting him. They’d come out even if no
one was running against him,” Roop said.
Weeks also faces a tough challenge from businessman and greyhound breeder
Mike Green. Green spent a lot of his own money to win the Democratic primary
over Susman and Wooten. But he has spent much less since the primary, leading
observers to think Weeks’ ground campaign could triumph again.
One final Raleigh County note: For unknown reasons, incumbent Delegate Ron
Thompson (no relation to Delegate Rick Thompson) is barely campaigning this
year, Roop said.
Eastern Panhandle
Another area of the state that is increasingly friendly GOP turf is the
fast-growing Eastern Panhandle.
Residents there have more in common with suburbanites in Virginia and
Maryland than residents of Wheeling, Williamson or Charleston.
Their growth has spurred a series of problems, from traffic congestion to
teacher shortages, to which the state Legislature has been slow to respond, said
Chris Strovel, news director of WEPM radio in Martinsburg.
Many residents feel the wealth of their area is being sucked up by the state
government and redistributed to other parts of the state, he said. Candidates in
both parties are sounding an anti-Charleston theme, especially the Republicans.
“The general message is, ‘We’re going to go to Charleston and take what’s
ours,’” Strovel said.
Republicans are targeting three Jefferson County Democrats in the House of
Delegates: Bob Tabb, Locke Wysong and John Doyle. Of the three, Tabb and Wysong
are probably the most vulnerable, Strovel said.
In Tabb’s race, Blankenship is running ads accusing him of supporting “secret
abortions.” Tabb denied this, but the issue resonates with some area voters,
Strovel said.
Sen. John Unger, D-Berkeley, also faces a strong challenge this year by
Republican Jerry Mays. Strovel said he thinks Unger will be able to survive,
especially if turnout is low among the newcomers to the county. (A disclaimer:
Unger works as a part-time host at the same station as Strovel.)
“There are enough of the old guard, instead of the transplanted McMansion
folks, that he’s still popular,” Strovel said.
Cabell and Wayne
It’s been a long time since a Republican candidate for the House of Delegates
was even considered competitive in Wayne County.
The fact that Republican Lisa Peana is seen as a serious threat to two
powerful House Democrats is a testament to Blankenship’s money, said Brian
Sizemore, managing editor of the Wayne County News.
Delegate Don Perdue, D-Wayne, is being hammered on social issues like
abortion, Sizemore said. Perdue is chairman of the Health and Human Resources
Committee and is being criticized in one newspaper advertisement for not putting
enough anti-abortion bills on the committee’s agenda.
“Everyone here has the old Christian values, and that sort of thing hits home
for them,” Sizemore said.
Still, Sizemore said he expects both Perdue and Rick Thompson, the other
Democrat, to get re-elected. Wayne County has voted overwhelmingly Democratic
for as long as anyone can remember. Besides, a lot of people know Perdue
personally, he said.
“They love Don down in Wayne County. I think Lisa may come close, but I don’t
see her winning,” he said.
In neighboring Cabell County, Democrats are playing offense in one House
district and defense in another.
In the 16th District, Democratic newcomer Doug Reynolds is running a strong
campaign, said Charleston Daily Mail columnist Dave Peyton, who lives outside
Huntington.
Reynolds is getting help from some big names, including former Marshall
football coach Bob Pruett and Reynolds’ father, Huntington businessman and
philanthropist Marshall Reynolds.
“Reynolds is focusing on his plans to overcome the drug problem, which is a
hot issue in Cabell County,” Peyton said. There was a drug-related triple murder
in Huntington last year, and drug-related crime is skyrocketing in the area,
Peyton said.
Reynolds’ campaign is bad news for at least one of three incumbents, he said.
Republican Kelli Sobonya is probably safe, leaving Democrat Dale Stephens and
Republican Greg Howard to battle it out for the last spot, he said.
In the 15th District, which includes parts of Cabell and Lincoln Counties,
Blankenship has targeted two Democrats: Margarette Leach and Jim Morgan.
Leach’s health problems have made it more difficult for her to campaign,
Peyton said. Meanwhile, Republican Carol Miller, whose husband owns Dutch Miller
Chevrolet in Huntington, is running on the same issues as Blankenship, Peyton
said, and could unseat one of the three Democrats in the district.
In the state Senate, two closely matched adversaries with medical ties find
themselves in a rematch. Sen. Evan Jenkins, D-Cabell, who is executive director
of the West Virginia State Medical Association, faces local doctor Tom Scott for
the second time. Jenkins has been criticized for sponsoring a bill to help his
father’s retirement home. Again, turnout in the House of Delegates races could
tip this race.
Kanawha Valley
Democrats have traditionally dominated in Kanawha County, but Republicans are
usually competitive. That seems to be the case this year as well.
In the House of Delegates, Republicans are confident they can take at least
one of the seven seats held by Democrats in the sprawling 30th District.
Republican candidate Mike Stuart has outspent most of his Democratic
competitors, and Republican Phil Raines also has spent more than average on his
campaign.
Meanwhile, Blankenship has beat up on the six incumbent Democrats, stressing
a controversial vote over drunken driving. The Democrats have fought back with a
combined advertising response.
In Kanawha County’s two Senate races, Democrats are seen as favorites by most
observers. Sen. Brooks McCabe appears to be coasting to another four-year term.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping they can pick up the seat of retiring
Republican Steve Harrison. Candidate Erik Wells has run positive commercials in
the last week of the campaign highlighting his military service. His name
recognition is high from his days as a television news anchor and from his 2004
campaign against Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, where Wells lost overall
but beat Capito in her home of Kanawha County.
Wells’ opponent, former WVU football standout Mark Plants, has focused on his
local roots and has raised more money than Wells in recent weeks, but most
observers believe it won’t be enough.
In what is likely to be one of the closer Senate races Tuesday, both
candidates in the 4th Senatorial District say they like their chances for
victory.
Democrat Jim Lees, an attorney with two maverick campaigns for governor under
his belt, said he has not done any opinion polling since an August survey showed
him with a 10 percentage-point lead, but said he is confident that margin hasn’t
slipped.
Delegate Mike Hall, R-Putnam, a six-term delegate, said the race is a clear
choice between himself, the pro-business candidate, and trial lawyer Lees.
“He appears to have to take a poll to figure out what to say to the public,”
Hall said.
Lees said he is amused by Hall’s efforts to imply that being a trial lawyer
is a bad thing, noting that he has gone to trial on occasion to challenge
government abuse, including overturning an illegal pay raise legislators gave
themselves.
Hall complained that Lees’ most recent ads criticize him for voting for a
House resolution supporting a now-defunct Bush administration plan to allow
younger workers to invest a small portion of their pensions in personal savings
accounts, while Lees is representing teachers who want to stay in such a plan
under the Teachers Defined Contribution retirement plan.
“It’s pretty clear we’re worlds apart on the issues,” Hall said.
These are only some of the areas to watch on election night. House of
Delegate races in rural areas of the state, such as Randolph, Barbour and Taylor
counties, could provide some surprises, campaign consultants say.
Democrats are hoping to pick up Republican House of Delegate seats in
Monongalia and Ohio counties, too. If they can, it could be a sign that
Republicans hopes of making significant gains in the Legislature have been
dashed once again.
But if Republicans can knock off incumbents in places like Wayne County, it
could be a long night for the Democrats.
And observers say races involving two Senate incumbents — Randy White,
D-Webster, and Jesse Guills, R-Greenbrier — could go either way. White is
recovering from the publication of private nude photos of himself by WCHS-TV.
Guills is a first-term lawyer facing former state Sen. Fred Parker, D-Monroe, a
retired schoolteacher.
It’s obvious but true: The election results hinge on who turns out Tuesday,
Roop said. Will Blankenship’s get-out-the-vote machine surprise everyone? Or
will Democrats come out to support Byrd and oppose the Iraq war?
“I think a lot of times the Democrats just don’t get out and vote. But with
the shape of the country right now, they’re motivated,” Roop said.
Staff writer Phil Kabler contributed to this report. To contact staff
writer Scott Finn, use e-mail or call 357-4323.
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